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At Windermere, we have the benefit of being expertly guided by our Chief Economist, Matthew
Gardner. Every year he shares his predictions for the US Economy and Housing Market. I have
included a list of highlights below along with a link to a video where he spells it all out.
Matthew’s Forecast for the US Economy:
• The US will still continue to feel the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy.
He acknowledges that we are healing, but still experiencing drag due to supply chain
delays and Covid-sensitive consumers. He expects this to improve as we head into spring
and the second half of 2022.
• He predicts a 4% increase in GDP in 2022.
• Even though we are still experiencing supply chain delays and labor shortages he does
not anticipate a recession.
• He predicts more robust job growth in 2022 and returning to pre-Covid employment in
the second half of 2022.
• Inflation is still very much affected by supply chain issues and labor shortages, but he
sees that settling out mid-2022.
• Interest rates will help to counteract inflation and will start to increase in 2022, but not
crest 4%.
Matthew’s Forecast for the US Housing Market:
• There will be a modest reduction in home sales year-over-year, but realize this is coming
off of a high volume of sales in 2021.
• After a record-breaking 16% increase in median price in 2021, he predicts a 7% increase
in median price year-over-year in 2022. This slow down in appreciation will be due to
increased interest rates, affordability, and a slight increase in supply.
• Housing starts will increase, but more importantly, construction completion will increase
due to supply chain issues and labor shortages improving.
• Interest rates will increase towards 4% as we travel through 2022, but will still be well
below the 30 year average of 7.5%.
• There will not be a housing bubble due to high demand for housing, job growth
improving, and the overall recovery of the US economy.
• He is not concerned about forbearance, but more so affordability for the aging millennial
generation who would like to purchase their first home.
• He sees the housing market moving towards more balance in 2022 after an incredible
year of growth in 2021.
Look for Matthew’s local economy and housing market predictions from me in January. My
office is also hosting a virtual Economic Forecast event with Matthew on January 19th. Stay
tuned for more information.
Overall, this is a positive outlook weighted with some real challenges that we still face as we
recover from the global pandemic. It is always my goal to help keep my clients well-informed
and empower strong decisions. Please reach out if you are curious about how the housing market
relates to your goals or if you’d like to attend the virtual economic forecast event with Matthew
in January.
