Quarterly Reports • October 16, 2018

North Snohomish County Quarterly Market Trends

by Melissa Huddleston

In September, the average days on market landed at 29 days and the original list-to-sale price ratio at 98%. Since May, inventory growth has been noticeable, and has given buyers more options. This has led to more negotiations and fewer bidding wars, which is tempering month-over-month price growth to a more sustainable level. Back in May, the average days on market was 22 days and the original list-to-sale price ratio 101%; but months of inventory based on pending sales was 1 month compared to 2.3 months currently. Year-over-year, prices are up 11%, still well above the historical norm of 3%-5% year-over-year gains—but note that the majority of this growth happened during the spring, due to constricted inventory levels.

Supply has increased, creating more options for buyers and helping to buffer affordability issues. Many sellers are deciding to make moves and cash in on the equity gained over the last six years. An average original list-to-sale price ratio of 98% is a positive return, yet illustrates a softening in the market after some very extreme times. With 11% price growth over the last 12-months in a seller’s favor, the increase in selection has led to more nimble moves from one house to another. Where sellers need to be careful is anticipating the month-over-month price growth we saw prior to the shift in inventory. Prospective buyers would be smart to take advantage of today’s historically low interest rates and the added inventory selection.

This is only a snapshot of the trends in north Snohomish County; please contact me if you would like further explanation of how the latest trends relate to you.

Monthly Newsletter • September 30, 2018

Monthly Newsletter

by Melissa Huddleston

With the sharpest increase of available homes for sale in years, more opportunities are now available for buyers, including first-timers. Many first-time home buyers have sat on the sidelines and remained renters due to the constriction of inventory, which put major pressure on price affordability. Not only has affordability been an issue, but the terms required to prevail in a multiple-offer situation were often not within reach for someone entering the market for the first time.

For example, over the last 12 months in the Seattle Metro area we have seen a 66% increase in the selection of homes for buyers to choose from. There is currently 1.8 months of available inventory based on pending sales versus 0.8 months that was available the same month last year. This is still a seller’s market (0-3 months), but it is providing more than twice as much selection than a year ago. This loosening up of the market has helped to temper price growth by reducing the amount of price escalations and the need to have super aggressive financing terms in order to secure a home.

You see, over the last 3-4 years we have experienced double-digit price appreciation (10-14%) year-over-year, each year. A normal rate of appreciation is 3-5%. Minimal amounts of available inventory, low interest rates, and rapid job growth lead to this increase in prices. Now that more homes are coming to market and job growth has stabilized a bit (still growing, but not as fast), price growth has slowed. This is good news for sustainability and affordability. Here’s the deal though – we are still experiencing growth in values, making home ownership a sound investment over renting.

According to the most recent survey from rentcafe.com, the average rent for an apartment in Seattle is $1,906 with an average square footage of 736 sq. ft. That is quite a bit of money for not a ton of space. Further, that monthly expenditure does not create any wealth for the renter, only for the landlord. With renting, rates can be increased at any time, and you are paying down someone else’s asset, not your own. Also, owning gives the homeowner control of their overhead, while getting to make their house their home by adding improvements such as painting.

There are several factors to consider that will lead a person to make the best decision for their lifestyle and their financial bottom line. One of the biggest factors is interest rates! Currently, the rate for a 30-year fixed, conventional, conforming loan is hovering around 4.88%. Up from earlier this year and predicted to rise, but still historically low over the course of the last 30 years. These rates need to be considered the greatest opportunity of them all! With prices tempering and rates still under the 30-year average of 6.65%, buyers are able to secure a sound investment with very low debt service.

With interest rates predicted to rise over the next year, a good rule of thumb to remember is that for every one-point increase in rate, a buyer loses 10% of their buying power. For example, if the rate jumps from 4.75% to 5.75% and one wants to keep the same monthly payment, they must adjust their price point down by 10%. So, a $450,000 budget becomes a $405,000 budget, and that isn’t taking appreciation into consideration. If you assume an average appreciation rate of 4% year-over-year, today’s $450,000 house will be $468,000 next year. What side of the equity growth do you want to be on? As an owner now, or a buyer a year from now, when prices are higher and interest rates are most likely higher as well?

Once you secure a mortgage, the payment stays the same over the term of the entire loan. The long-term benefits of owning are abundant, including the stability of not being asked to move. These are important factors to consider for everyone, but especially millennials, who are enjoying the benefits of Seattle’s attractive job market. One myth to address is the common belief that you must have a 20% down payment in order to buy a home. That is simply not true. There are loan programs as low as 3% down, decreasing the need to have a large sum of money saved up before being able to buy.

Where folks are having to compromise the most due to affordability is commute times, and settling in less-urban neighborhoods. Worth pointing out, is the average home price in south Snohomish County is 34% less than Seattle Metro – that is a huge savings! Further, south King County is 74% more affordable than Seattle. Some people, mainly millennials, have not been willing to give up living in the core urban neighborhoods that have high walk scores and shorter commute times. That should be apt to change with more selection available in the purchase market, coupled with low interest rates. The advantages of moving out a little further and securing a home will start people on the track of building long-term wealth. If you or anyone you know is currently renting and is considering a change, please let me know, as I would be happy to get their questions answered and help them make an informed decision.

Don’t Wait for a Disaster to Build Your Emergency Kit

Two Weeks Ready: Be Prepared. Build Kits. Help Each Other.

The first few days after a disaster are often the most critical. Government and essential services may not be available right away, depending on the circumstances. It is imperative to have a plan in place for such a time, and be ready to act on your own.

Washington’s biggest disaster threat is from earthquakes. Washington State’s Emergency Management Division advises that we take precautions to be on our own for at least 2 weeks. Take a look at their Two Week Ready Brochure (PDF) that outlines the basics necessary for your emergency kit. While it is important to get ready, don’t feel like you have to do it all at once. The list of necessities is long, so take a look at the agency’s year-long prep plan. You will also find information on pet preparedness, as well as the agency’s Drop, Cover, and Hold Earthquake Scenario map.

#TackleHomelessness Update

During last weekend’s win against Dallas, the Seattle Seahawks had 46 defensive tackles, raising another $4,600 for Windermere’s #TackleHomelessness campaign. Combined with what we’ve raised over the past two seasons, this brings our to-date grand total to $71,400! All season long we’ll be partnering with the Seahawks to raise money for YouthCare in support of homeless youth.

Uncategorized • September 5, 2018

Pumpkin Patch Guide 2018

by Melissa Huddleston

Nothing feels more like fall than pumpkin picking, hay rides and corn mazes. Get your latte in hand and head out to any one of these great, local farms to have some harvest fun and find that perfect jack-o-lantern to light up your porch.

Times, dates & activities may change, please use the links provided for details.

KING COUNTY

Baxter Barn 31929 SE 44th St, Fall City Pumpkin patch, tractor-pulled hay rides, fresh eggs, gift shop, pony rides, picnic area, farm animals

Carpinito Brothers 1148 Central Ave N, Kent Pumpkin patch, corn maze, farm fun yard, hay rides, produce stand, concessions

Fall City Farms 3636 Neal Road, Fall City Pumpkin patch, tractor-pulled hay rides, fresh honey, pre-picked produce, farm animals, snacks and refreshments.

Fox Hollow Family Farm 12031 Issaquah Hobart Rd SE, Issaquah Pumpkins for sale, hay bale maze, bouncy house, face painting, haunted house, pony rides, petting zoo, farm animals, concessions

Jubilee Farm 229 W Snoqualmie River Rd NE, Carnation Pumpkins, horse-drawn covered wagon rides, hay rides, hay bale maze

Oxbow Farm 10819 Carnation-Duvall Rd NE, Carnation Pumpkins, produce, picnic area, playground

Mosby Farm Pumpkin Patch 12747-b South East Green Valley Rd, Auburn Pumpkin patch, corn maze, tractor-pulled hay rides, snacks and refreshment stand, picnic area

The Nursery at Mt Si 42328 SE 108th St, North Bend Pumpkin patch, tractor-pulled hay rides

Remlinger Farms 32610 NE 32nd St, Carnation Pumpkin patch, corn maze, animal barnyard, pony rides, steam train, hay jump

Serres Farm 20306 NE 50th St, Redmond Pumpkin patch, corn maze, duck races, animal train

Thomasson Family Farm 38223 236th Ave SE, Enumclaw Pumpkin patch, corn maze, kids korral, tractor train rides, pumpkin sling shot

Tonnemaker Valley Farm, Woodinville Farm Stand 16215 140th Pl NE, Woodinville You-pick pumpkin patch, you-pick flowers, produce stand, on-site pepper roasting on Saturdays

SNOHOMISH COUNTY

Biringer’s Black Crow Pumpkins & Corn Maze 2431 Highway 530 NE, Arlington Pumpkin patch, corn maze, straw or hay bale maze, tractor-pulled hay rides, farm market, picnic area

Bob’s Corn & Pumpkin Farm 10917 Elliott Rd, Snohomish Pumpkin patch, corn maze, bonfire & picnic area, hay rides, pony rides, playground, concessions

Carleton Farm 630 Sunnyside Blvd SE, Lake Stevens Pumpkin patch, train rides, corn maze, haunted corn maze, tractor-pulled hay rides, farm animals, farm market

Craven Farm 13817 Short School Rd, Snohomish Pumpkin patch, corn maze, tractor-pulled hay rides, face painting, farm animals, snacks & refreshment stand

The Farm at Swans Trail 7301 Rivershore Rd, Snohomish Pumpkin patch, corn maze, pick your own apples, pig & duck races, petting zoo, putt-putt golf and more

Fairbank Animal Farm & Pumpkin Patch 15308 52nd Ave W, Edmonds Pumpkins, petting zoo, farm animals, picnic area

Fosters Pumpkin Farm 5818 State Route 530 NE, Arlington Pumpkin patch, corn maze, hay bale maze, corn cannon, pre-picked produce, face painting, farm animals, snacks and refreshment stand, picnic area

Stocker Farms 8705 Marsh Rd, Snohomish Pumpkin patch, corn maze, haunted corn maze, tractor-pulled hay rides, jumping pillow and more

Thomas Family Farm 9010 Marsh Road, Snohomish Pumpkin patch, corn maze, monster truck rides, haunted house, gem mining, Zombie Safari Paintball Hayride, beer garden, putt-putt golf and more

PIERCE COUNTY

Double R Farms 5820 44th St E, Puyallup Pumpkin patch, corn maze, hay rides, farm animals, pumpkin sling shot

Maris Farms 25001 Sumner-Buckley Hwy, Buckley Pumpkin patch, corn maze, haunted woods, farm animals, hay ride, trout fishing, play ground

Picha’s Farm 6502 52nd St E, Puyallup Pumpkin patch, corn maze, hay ride, pumpkin sling shot, concessions

Scholz Farm 12920 162nd Ave E, Orting Pumpkin patch, corn maze, play area

Spooner Farms 9622 SR 162 E, Puyallup Pumpkin patch, farm animals, face painting, pumpkin sling shot, concessions

Uncategorized • September 5, 2018

Don’t Wait for a Disaster to Build Your Emergency Kit

by Melissa Huddleston

Two Weeks Ready: Be Prepared. Build Kits. Help Each Other.

Uncategorized • September 5, 2018

Windermere and the Seahawks are Back for Another Season to #TackleHomelessness!

by Melissa Huddleston

All of us at Windermere are very excited to kick off our third season as the Official Real Estate Company of the Seattle Seahawks!

Once again, our #tacklehomelessness campaign is front-and-center, with the Windermere Foundation donating $100 for every Seahawks home-game tackle during the 2018 season to YouthCare, a Seattle-based non-profit organization that has been providing services and support to homeless youth for more than 40 years. Over the last two years, the Seahawks helped us raise over $66,000 through our #tacklehomelessness campaign, and this year we are looking forward to raising even more money – and awareness – for this important cause.

Our partnership with the Seahawks and YouthCare fits perfectly with the mission of the Windermere Foundation which is to support low-income and homeless families in the communities where we have offices. Through the #tacklehomelessness campaign, we hope to be able to do even more.

Uncategorized • September 5, 2018

Windermere Foundation Update

by Melissa Huddleston

Thanks to the generosity of Windermere agents, staff, franchise owners, and the community, the Windermere Foundation has proudly donated a total of $920,351 so far this year to non-profit organizations that provide services to low-income and homeless families. This brings the total amount of money that the Windermere Foundation has raised since 1989 to over $36 million. We could not accomplish these numbers without the unwavering loyalty and support of clients like you – thank you!

Each Windermere office has its own Foundation fund account that we use to help organizations in our own local community. This past year, my office had the privilege to: provide 26 foster boys a plentiful Christmas morning; give full holiday dinners plus additional groceries to families receiving aid from Pioneer Human Services; spend a full day helping the Snohomish Garden Club plant thousands of pounds of fresh produce for local food banks; and send 40 kids to YMCA Camps Orkila and Colman who would not have otherwise had the opportunity.

Thank you for choosing Windermere and making all of this possible. Your impact is meaningful, and together we are changing lives.

Uncategorized • August 28, 2018

Keeping Price Growth in Perspective, Opportunities Abound for Both Buyers and Sellers

by Melissa Huddleston

“How’s the Market?” is a question I am asked all the time. It is a common segue in casual conversation over the neighbor’s fence, at a cocktail party or family gathering. Now more than ever, the answer to this question is critical, yet fascinating. You see, our market is experiencing a long-awaited correction, a tempering of price appreciation. This is providing great opportunities for both buyers and sellers.

For so long, inventory has been so limited that prices have had nowhere else to go but up, and up fast! In May, we saw the largest jump in new listings in a decade, which created a slowdown in month-over-month price appreciation. This was especially exacerbated due to the scarcity of inventory in the first quarter of the year when many jobs were being filled by big companies in the area, skyrocketing demand. The graphs above illustrate the price growth in both King and Snohomish Counties. If you average out the last 12 months and compare to the previous 12 months, prices are up 14% in King County and 13% in Snohomish County. Due to a large increase in inventory and other factors, we have seen prices start to balance out since May.

Additional factors that play into this healthy adjustment on the run-up of prices are interest rates, affordability, and Seattle summertime. First, interest rates have been dancing. They have climbed over a half a point from a year ago, which has been coupled with double-digit price growth, forcing many buyers to take a step back. Bear in mind that interest rates are still under 5% and well below the 30-year average of 6.61%. This must be taken to heart!

Affordability has been a huge factor that played into the reduction of absorption rate once the increase in new listings hit this Spring. This was especially true in King County. Prices peeked so far this year at $725,000 in April, whereas they peeked in Snohomish County at $510,000 in June. This is simple supply and demand, as buyers have had more selection. Further, many buyers turned their heads north to find a more affordable option while still sustaining a manageable commute.

The bottom line is that it just got too expensive for some to make King County their home, even Snohomish County for that matter. Combine that with an influx of selection, and you find the top of the market so far in 2018. This is not a bad thing! We must keep the double-digit, year-over-year price appreciation in perspective, and trust that the market factors which led to prices balancing out are healthy. A typical appreciation rate is 3-5%. Matthew Gardner, Windermere’s Chief Economist, predicts that we will finish out 2018 with 7-8% appreciation over 2017, which is well above the norm of 3-5%. Sustainable growth is important to the overall health of our economy and culture; this provides opportunity.

Buyers take heed. As we come out of the Seattle summertime seasonal slowdown, we anticipate a little run on new listings in September and October. Note on the graph above that we seasonally see prices peek in the late spring and early summer, due to many folks taking time to enjoy the summer months traveling and relaxing a bit. If you have been a sidelined buyer or have been thinking about making a move, the remainder of 2018 may be your time to enjoy more selection, still-low interest rates, and the chance to secure the best home for your lifestyle.

Interest rates are still attractive (historically attractive) and are predicted to rise. Plus, selection has increased, making negotiations not as intense. Multiple offers are not always the norm these days, which provides some breathing room for luxuries like inspections and relying on the bank’s appraisal to confirm value. Also, if you are a buyer that needs to sell a home first in order to purchase, this environment is much more forgiving. Believe it or not, we have even started to see contingent offers make a comeback.

This was one reason why we saw such a limit on inventory, because folks were not able to make fluid moves, so they just uncomfortably stayed put. It was the many baby boomers who came to market this spring and summer who relocated out of the area that loosened this up, paving the way for the local first-time, move-up, or move-down buyer to have some opportunity to transition.

So what does all this mean for potential sellers? Well, a lot! The word of the day is perspective. You must keep a close connection to the double-digit, year-over-year price appreciation we have seen over the last three years, and come to terms with today’s balancing out. Great equity gains are behind every homeowner who has owned their home since 2012. If that equity has been cared for, there are large profits to turn, even though you might not get multiple offers. All it takes is one good buyer for a successful sale!

It is all about what is motivating you. If a move seems interesting or imminent, chances are you can take that equity and turn it into something that better matches your current lifestyle. This is where a detailed assessment of the features of your home, along with an analysis of market conditions can be developed into a winning strategy. This does not come easy and requires in-depth research, close attention to condition and comparable homes, and outstanding marketing and merchandising.

Where I have seen the most opportunity is when sellers partner up and listen to the professional assessment of all of these factors. It often leads to satisfying results with one buyer, or believe it or not, the occasional multiple offer. Our market is exciting, but it takes skill to set level expectations, which leads to positive results.

If you or someone you know is curious about “How’s the Market?”, please reach out. Education and explanation are key to awareness, which leads to clarity. I love what I do and look forward to the opportunity to serve during this changing time. It is my goal to help keep my clients informed and empower strong decisions.

Uncategorized • July 3, 2018

You DO NOT Need 20% Down to Buy Your Home NOW!

by Melissa Huddleston

From the Keeping Current Matters website: https://www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/2018/06/25/you-do-not-need-20-down-to-buy-your-home-now/

The Aspiring Home Buyers Profile from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) found that the American public is still somewhat confused about what is required to qualify for a home mortgage loan in today’s housing market. The results of the survey show that the main reason why non-homeowners do not own their own homes is because they believe that they cannot afford them.

This brings us to two major misconceptions that we want to address today.

1. Down Payment

A recent survey by Laurel Road, the National Online Lender and FDIC-Insured Bank, revealed that consumers overestimate the down payment funds needed to qualify for a home loan.

According to the survey, 53% of Americans who plan to buy or have already bought a home admit to their concerns about their ability to afford a home in the current market. In addition, 46% are currently unfamiliar with alternative down payment options, and 46% of millennials do not feel confident that they could currently afford a 20% down payment.

What these people don’t realize, however, is that there are many loans written with down payments of 3% or less.

Many renters may actually be able to enter the housing market sooner than they ever imagined with new programs that have emerged allowing less cash out of pocket.

2. FICO^®Scores

An Ipsos survey revealed that 62% of respondents believe they need excellent credit to buy a home, with 43% thinking a “good credit score” is over 780. In actuality, the average FICO^® scores for approved conventional and FHA mortgages are much lower.

The average conventional loan closed in May had a credit score of 753, while FHA mortgages closed with an average score of 676. The average across all loans closed in May was 724. The chart below shows the distribution of FICO® Scores for all loans approved in May.

Bottom Line

If you are a prospective buyer who is ‘ready’ and ‘willing’ to act now, but you are not sure if you are ‘able’ to, sit down with a professional who can help you understand your true options today.

** I’d be happy to discuss your options with you and give you recommendations for highly competent lenders who can get you to your dream of owning a home. **

What's Happening? • July 1, 2018

What’s in Your Toolbox to Navigate the Changing Market?

by Melissa Huddleston

The late spring market brought about some welcomed change to our local real estate markets. In May, we experienced the largest increase in inventory in a decade! North King County and South Snohomish County are two examples of what is happening in all the markets across the Puget Sound as we head into the second half of 2018. Below is a breakdown of the current environment; further is an explanation of what it all means.

North King County (Ship Canal to Snohomish County Line):

38% increase in new listings from April to May 2018
16% more new listings in May 2018 vs. May 2017
Overall 5% more new listings over the last 12 months vs. the previous 12 months
Average list-to-sale price ratios reduce to 104% from 105% in May 2018
Median Price up 15% complete year over year, but down 1% vs. the previous month, landing at $815K.

South Snohomish County (Snohomish County Line to Everett):

27% increase in new listings from April to May 2018
10% more new listings in May 2018 vs. May 2017
Overall 2% more new listings over the last 12 months vs. the previous 12 months
Average list-to-sale price ratios reduce to 102% from 103% in May 2018
Median price up 12% complete year over year, but equal with the previous month, landing at $500K.

This increase in inventory is awesome! It is providing more selection for buyers and is helping temper price growth, which was increasing at an unsustainable level. It is still a Seller’s market by all means, which is defined by having three or less months of available inventory. Both market areas are still just under one month of inventory based on pending sales, but not as low as the two-week mark they were experiencing in March.

The increase in inventory is the result of pent up seller demand. From 1985-2008 the average amount of time a homeowner stayed in their home was 6 years. From 2008-2017 it grew to 9 years. With a resounding amount of equity under their belts, many homeowners are now deciding to make moves. Some are moving up to the next best thing and others are cashing out and leaving the area for a new beginning or retirement. This is providing buyers with the selection they have been waiting for after a very tenuous, inventory-starved start to 2018. The buyers that have stayed on the forefront of the market are now being rewarded with choices. These choices are best accompanied with keen discernment in order to craft the best negotiations – the Broker they choose to align with is key.

The price analysis above indicates strong equity positions for sellers, but also a leveling off in price growth. Over the first quarter we saw prices increase month-over-month quite handily; now that more inventory is appearing and demand is being absorbed, price growth is not as extreme. This has highlighted the importance of having a strategic pricing and marketing plan for sellers wanting the highest price and shortest market time. The broker they choose to align with is key.

The importance of both buyers and sellers aligning with a knowledgeable, well-researched and responsive broker is paramount. One might think that it is “easy” to sell a house in this market, but the pricing research, home preparation, market exposure, varied marketing mediums, close management of all the communication, and how negotiations are handled can make or break a seller’s net return on the sale. With market times increasing, having a broker with a tight grasp on the changing environment will help create an efficient market time, resulting in the best price and terms for a successful closing. It is important that sellers do not overshoot this market, and it takes a broker with a keen gut sense rooted in in-depth research to help get them their desired results.

If you’re a buyer, it is overwhelmingly important that you are aligned with a broker that knows how to win in this market. The increase in selection has left some room for contemplation in some cases. Considering possible terms and price based on thorough market research as you head into negotiations are what set a highly capable selling broker apart, and are required to prevail. With more selection coming to market, buyers have more to consider, and having a broker alongside them to help craft a strategy of negotiations will ensure they don’t overpay.

If you have any curiosities or questions regarding the value of your current home or purchase opportunities in today’s market, please contact me. It is my goal to help keep you informed and empower strong decisions.

What's Happening? • May 15, 2018

Thank YOU from the Windermere Foundation

by Melissa Huddleston

Thanks to your continued support, the Windermere Foundation collected over $330,000 in donations in the first quarter of 2018. Fifty-eight percent of the donations came from individual contributions and fundraisers, while 42 percent came from donations through Windermere agent sales transactions. This brings our grand total to $35,869,961 raised since 1989. We are very close to reaching the $36-million mark! These funds go towards supporting low-income and homeless families right here in our local community. Thanks again for all you do to support the Windermere Foundation. Together, we are able to make a difference for those in need in our local communities. For the full first quarter 2018 report, please visit the Windermere blog, and to learn more about the Windermere Foundation, visit www.windermere.com/foundation.

1. Down Payment

2. FICO®Scores

Bottom Line

2. FICO^®Scores